Monday, December 26, 2011

Where to Invest in 2012?

There is the story that in 1929 before the crash that a certain Wall St banker, while getting his shoes shined, overheard two shoeshine boys talking about their stocks. This man went and sold every stock he had. He figured that when the shoeshine boys were buying and selling stocks it was time to get out.

A few days ago the Wall Street Journal carried an article about the sudden popularity of North Korean bonds that defaulted 30 years ago. People are buying the bonds with anticipation that a new day is coming in North Korea with the death of Kim Jong Il. I have to think about that.

Do the people buying those defaulted bonds know something the rest of us don't know. Are those bonds preferable to common stocks, corporate bonds, Treasury bills and real estate?

I have been a bear on 401Ks and 403Bs since they started. I knew it would be constant new money pouring into mutual funds dealing in ordinary investments. The same shares of stock would be bought and sold at ever higher prices until the day that more people wanted to sell than to buy. With baby boomers retiring and with no growth and low interest 71 million people will be cashing out.Who will buy their stocks?

I think of the words of Psalms 20 that some trust in chariots and some in horses. This little ditty tells it with graphics.

David Sneed



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